The AI value chain
8 links, from mined inputs to what deployment creates. Color is a statement about the crowd, not about the future.
constrained / less crowdedcrowdedopen question
The consequence layer: what deployment creates · feeds on Models + End demand
08
Security & trust
constraint: mediumset 2026-08-05
+47.5%one-year price, median
The 8 links, measured
Each measured cell is the link's median across its listed names. This note comes before the table, not after: it is what makes it readable.
| Link | Curated levels, dated | Measured medians | Signals | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Link | constraint level | hype level | confidence level | Gross margin median, in % | Capex / revenue median, in % | Expected vs delivered median, in points, delivered: past 2 years | EV / revenue median, in x | Price, 1 year median, in % | Recent shocks (7d) count |
| Minerals & materials level set 2026-07-30 | medium | low | low | +33.0% | +47.1% | no median names with this figure: 2 of 7, 3 needed | 13× | -31.7% | 0 |
| Electricity level set 2026-07-30 | high | medium | medium | +36.0% | +3.4% | +5.7% | 4.3× | +1.3% | 0 |
| Chips level set 2026-07-30 | high | medium | high | +55.7% | +8.0% | -6.1% | 14.6× | +33.0% | 1 |
| Interconnect level set 2026-09-27 | high | high | medium | +44.2% | +4.3% | -24.6% | 18× | +102.9% | 2 |
| Compute & datacenters level set 2026-08-04 | medium | high | medium | +57.0% | +46.6% | no median names with this figure: 1 of 5, 3 needed | 12.4× | -0.6% | 3 |
| Models level set 2026-08-04 | low | medium | low | no median names with this figure: 2 of 2, 3 needed | no median names with this figure: 2 of 2, 3 needed | no median names with this figure: 1 of 2, 3 needed | no median names with this figure: 2 of 2, 3 needed | no median names with this figure: 2 of 2, 3 needed | 3 |
| End demand level set 2026-08-04 | unknown | unknown | low | +73.7% | +1.4% | -12.6% | 3.7× | -18.2% | 3 |
| Security & trust level set 2026-08-05 | medium | unknown | low | +76.0% | +5.8% | -5.3% | 22.2× | +47.5% | 1 |
constrained / less crowdedcrowdedopen question
The chain, in full
Read left to right: link, then its segments, then the companies on each segment. A name in bold leads its segment today; a challenger carries a clock, the curated number of years until it could plausibly matter. Zero means it already moves prices.
- SK Hynix
- Micron
- Samsung Electronics
- CXMT (ChangXin Memory)clock: already moving
- ASML
- Shanghai Yuliangsheng Technologyclock: 3 yunlisted: watched, not analyzed as an asset
- SMEEclock: 5 yunlisted: watched, not analyzed as an asset
- TSMC
- SMICclock: 4 y
- Hua Hong Semiconductorclock: 2 y
- Alphabet (Google DeepMind)
- DeepSeekclock: already movingunlisted: watched, not analyzed as an asset
- Alibaba (Qwen)clock: already moving
The consequence layer: what deployment creates · feeds on Models + End demand
08 · as of 2026-08-05
Security & trustconstraint: medium
Two clocks on this page: prices, news and shock counts refresh every day; each link's curated level carries the date it was RULED, an older date means the call still stands, on the record.
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What every badge on this map means
- constraint
- the curated reading of how physically scarce this link's output is: sold-out fabs, booked capacity, long qualification queues read as high. Dated; its falsifier is published on the link page.
- hype
- the OTHER crowding (investors and narrative, not factories): how much one-way attention sits on this part of the chain. A constrained link can be quiet; an open one can be loud.
- confidence
- how solid the evidence behind the tightness level is. Low confidence means the level stands but its evidence base is thin: said openly instead of hidden.
- shock
- material events from the last 7 days: capacity, logistics, regulatory, pricing or failure, detected in mined news and naming a company in the tree. The count includes shocks propagated from links this one depends on; the link page lists each with its source.
- color
- teal = constrained or less crowded, amber = crowded, gray = open question. A statement about the crowd, dated: never an instruction.